By: John Rauser - Farecast Fareologist
This is part two of a series on seasonal trends in airfare for travel to different parts of the world. Part one covered travel within the US, and tomorrow I’ll talk about travel from the US to Europe. You can also check out my airfare seasonality video on YouTube.
Here’s a chart comparing a year of average prices for travel for a mix of cities within the US and for travel from the US to Mexico and the Caribbean. The two mirror each other closely, but travel south of the border costs about $140 more on average. You may be interested to know that more than half (roughly $90) of this difference comes from international taxes and immigration fees levied both by the US and by foreign governments.
Since the two trend lines are very similar all the advice I gave for travel within the US applies here as well. However, there are two key differences for Spring and Summer travel to Mexico and the Carribean.
Day of week really matters for Spring break trips to warm destinations
Everything I said earlier about choosing to fly on certain days of the week in Spring goes extra for travel to Mexico and the Caribbean. During March and President’s day weekend, choosing to depart on a Tuesday or Wednesday might save you $50 domestically, but if you’re heading Cancun or Aruba the savings can easily be $75 to $100 or more. If your schedule allows, think seriously about booking an eight-night Tuesday to Wednesday trip instead of Saturday to Sunday.
Hurricane season cuts Summer short
The other big difference from travel to the Caribbean is that prices drop substantially for travel after July 1st. Hurricane season is typically defined as June through November, but according to NOAA’s data, most storms occur between August and October. Even in September, the peak of hurricane activity, the risk of suffering a direct hit by a named storm is relatively low. Paraphrasing an answer on NOAA’s website: if you took a week long trip to Puerto Rico in September each year for fifty years, you should expect that just one of those trips would be disrupted by a hurricane. For other locations and other months, the risk is even lower.
But just because the chance of getting hit by a named storm is low, you should consider that in the core of hurricane season, August through October, it does tend to be more rainy than usual. And during the Summer months, it is likely to be very hot and humid. In Montego Bay Jamaica for example, the average high is 89 degrees throughout the Summer, and dew points are in the 70s. That kind of heat makes many people wilt.